The Prognosis suite of models, now called the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) in the United States, was originally developed to assist in projecting the complex stands found in the northern Rocky Mountain region of the United States. The growth and yield component of this suite of models forecasts future stand conditions based on the expected growth and mortality of individual trees within a stand. The considerable work already completed on FVS, and the similarity of the stand conditions in the northern Rocky Mountain region of the United States to those found in southeastern British Columbia, prompted the Ministry of Forests to begin a project to adapt the northern Idaho variant of FVS for use in British Columbia (PrognosisBC). PrognosisBC has been calibrated for use in a number of Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) variants in the southern and central interior of the province, in particular, variants in the Interior Douglas Fir (IDF), Interior Cedar Hemlock (ICH) and the Montane Spruce (MS) zones.
The strengths of PrognosisBC include its ability to simulate almost any form of harvesting and to simulate the impacts of a host of forest health issues (e.g., root disease). Some of the forest health extensions are not yet calibrated for BC. The strength of the model is that it utilizes the architecture of the base FVS model and consequently it can be readily adapted to use extensions available in FVS if these are properly calibrated for BC.
In the past 5 years, a number of FSP-funded projects have been successfully completed developing PrognosisBC for use in the complex stands of the southern and central interior. These include projects to:
1) calibrate the growth and mortality components for mixed species stands in different subzones (Zumrawi et al. 2002 and Zumrawi et al. 2005, Temesgen et al. 2000);
2) develop a natural regeneration prediction system following partial harvesting (Hassani et al. 2004)
3) develop a user-friendly graphical user interface (Robinson 2005);
4) provide hands-on training workshops for model users; and
5) develop natural regeneration prediction models for MPB-attacked stands (ongoing).
Both version 2.0 and 3.0 of the model are supported by the BC Ministry of Forests and Range and are available for download from the Ministrys growth and yield website.
Future development of PrognosisBC will build on the work completed in the last 5 years. The following research and development components are proposed for the next three years:
1) review the growth and mortality components of Version 3.0 based on the results of the validation completed in 2006;
2) complete model calibration for the SBS and SBPS BEC zones;
3) amalgamate Versions 2 and 3 of the model to address gaps in its capability to predict natural regeneration following partial harvesting;
4) develop snag and coarse woody debris and decay components to generate carbon reports for live and dead biomass in the short term and to facilitate future linkages to fuel and fire models in the long term; and
5) validate the models performance in each of these areas.
Repeated measurements from permanent sample plots (PSPs) in IDFdk were used to validate the PrognosisBC model performance (Zumrawi et al. 2006). Overall, the model performance was found to be within acceptable limits. The model accurately simulated future individual tree dbh. Future individual tree heights were also predicted within acceptable limits; however, the model was highly variable and seemed to underestimate height growth of large trees. Also, the validation revealed that the random error component for the small tree height increment models behaved in erratically and need to be examined. Under this proposal both the large tree and small tree height increment models will be refitted and new model forms will be evaluated and where appropriate implemented. PSP data will be used to model large tree height increment models and temporary sample plot data
ESSA Technologies Ltd., Marshall, Peter L.; Lee, Taehee. 2011. GYMP: Development of the PrognosisBC model for the complex stands in southern and central interior of BC. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report
Topic: FLNRORD Research Program
Keywords: Forest, Investment, Account, (FIA), British, Columbia
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