The goal of this project was to provide analysis services to forecast the outcomes of several forest management strategies to support Canfor Quesnel in their efforts to achieve certification by the Canadian Standards Association (CAN CSA Z809). There are many criteria and indicators identified in the Quesnel SFM plan; however, many of them cannot be currently forecast through modelling due to lack of data. Particularly, there is a lack of information on how some specific indicators may behave or develop in the future. The first task in the project was to develop a list of indicators that could be modelled using traditional forest estate modelling techniques. Next a base case scenario (i.e., the current policy or management scenario) was developed. The role of the base case is to represent the current forest management in the Quesnel Defined Forest Area (DFA). In the Quesnel DFA and elsewhere throughout the province, the current Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) epidemic infestation dominates the landscape and drives current harvest planning. The magnitude of the current MPB infestation impacts remain uncertain due to lack of current data relating to the level of attack, and the length of time that stands attacked remain merchantable however, it is expected that the impacts will be significant. These limitations are noted and the best available, recognized information and assumptions regarding MPB infestation was used in this analysis. The management scenarios were designed to determine the impacts of the MPB infestation under different assumptions. Learning scenarios were then developed which attempted to identify a set of potential mitigating factors to the MPB attack. It is important to note that there are limitations associated with the assumptions of indicators and measures biological richness or quality of life as they are represented in forecasting and modelling. For this reason, the scenarios used in this analysis should be considered as a first step and only as giving direction on how changing certain analysis parameters may affect analysis results, rather than complete representations of scenarios priorities and management objectives.
a project submitted by Forest Ecosystem Solutions Ltd.
Forest Ecosystem Solutions Ltd.. 2007. Quesnel defined forest area: preparation for Canadian standards association forest certification scenario design and indicator/measure, forecasting for the Quesnel defined forest area. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Land Base Investment Program. Forest Investment Account Report