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A Transfer Function for Survival and Its Use in Developing Climate-sensitive Projections of Volume for Lodgepole Pine Sattler, D.
2024
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Abstract: Transfer functions relate attributes such as tree height and survival to climate transfer distance and are developed using data from provenance trials. Originally designed to inform seed deployment strategies, transfer functions have become useful in forecasting population responses to climate change. Recent studies have demonstrated that climate-sensitive growth and yield models may be developed by using transfer functions to adjust projections of growth and survival. For the current study, a transfer function for survival was developed for lodgepole pine using time-series measurements collected from a range-wide provenance trial with test sites situated throughout British Columbia. The transfer function that was developed predicts annual percent survival as a function of changes in mean coldest monthly temperature, mean annual precipitation, and site height. The function also included two statistically significant interaction terms, which signify that climate change will elicit a population-specific response for survival. A method was then developed that used the transfer function for survival to modify a difference equation that predicts the number of live stems ha–1 over time. Projections for the number of live stems ha–1 were then used in a meta- model together with projections of site height, the latter of which were generated using an updated version of a published transfer function for height and a site index equation for lodgepole pine. The meta-model was used to estimate stand- level volume at three hypothetical planting sites for a future climate scenario. When compared to volume projections in a static climate, the results suggest that most populations of lodgepole pine in British Columbia will likely be negatively affected by climate change, with southern populations predicted to be the most severely affected. The negative effects on volume occurred despite an increase in survival that was predicted at the three planting sites. The study concludes by providing some discussion about the use of transfer functions when developing climate-sensitive growth and yield models.
 
Sattler, D., Peterson, K.; Wang, T.; O'Neill, G.. 2024. A Transfer Function for Survival and Its Use in Developing Climate-sensitive Projections of Volume for Lodgepole Pine. FOR. Technical Report (FLNRORD). TR151
 
Topic: Conservation & Management (Wildlife, Fish, Plant)
Keywords: transfer function, survival, climate-sensitive, lodgepole pine, Growth and yield, modelling, climate change, forest productivity, Tree And Stand Simulator, TASS
ISSN:  Scientific Name: 
ISBN: 978-1-0399-0094-3 English Name: 
Other Identifier: TR151
 
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