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The overall objective of this project was to calibrate the main component models of PrognosisBC to allow its use in the SBS and SBPS BEC zones in the central interior of the province. Models and data presented in the enclosed report were incorporated into the PrognosisBC growth and yield simulator version 3.0, and will be subsequently tested and validated within the context of the simulator. Official release of the new version of the model will follow model testing. A two-day training workshop was offered in Kamloops, BC in February 2005 to introduce users to version 3.0 of the PrognosisBC software. This report and associated data will be made available through the Ministry of Forests growth and yield website as well as the PrognosisBC web site at the University of British Columbia.
http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/prognosis/summary.html
Abdel-Azim Zumrawi.
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim, Marshall, Peter L.; Akindele, Shadrach Olufemi; Ortlepp, Stephanie; Thony, Paul. 2005. Calibrating PrognosisBC in the Sub-Boreal Spruce and the Sub-Boreal Pine-Spruce Biogeoclimatic zones. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report
PrognosisBC is a growth and yield model developed to predict the impacts of partial cutting on future stand structures in multi-species and/or multi-age stands. Applications of the existing version of this model are limited by the lack of a natural regeneration component. The research and extension activities outlined in this proposal are aimed at implementing a natural regeneration model within the context of PrognosisBC . This work will be based on the regeneration imputation techniques developed at the Department of Forest Resources Management, UBC, for a number of important biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification subzone variants in south-eastern and central British Columbia. The new model will provide the tool needed to project the dynamics of complex stands under partial harvesting regimes. Abdel Azim Zumrawi...[et al.]
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim. 2003. Expanding PrognosisBC to the Chilcotin variant of the Interior-Douglas Fir Dry Cool Subzone. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2003MR259
The Prognosis suite of models, now called the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) in the United States, was originally developed to assist in projecting the complex stands found in the northern Rocky Mountain region of the United States. The growth and yield component of this suite of models forecasts future stand conditions based on the expected growth and mortality of individual trees within a stand. The considerable work already completed on FVS, and the similarity of the stand conditions in the northern Rocky Mountain region of the United States to those found in southeastern British Columbia, prompted the Ministry of Forests to begin a project to adapt the northern Idaho variant of FVS for use in British Columbia (PrognosisBC). PrognosisBC has been calibrated for use in a number of Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) variants in the southern and central interior of the province, in particular, variants in the Interior Douglas Fir (IDF), Interior Cedar Hemlock (ICH) and the Montane Spruce (MS) zones.
The strengths of PrognosisBC include its ability to simulate almost any form of harvesting and to simulate the impacts of a host of forest health issues (e.g., root disease). Some of the forest health extensions are not yet calibrated for BC. The strength of the model is that it utilizes the architecture of the base FVS model and consequently it can be readily adapted to use extensions available in FVS if these are properly calibrated for BC.
In the past 5 years, a number of FSP-funded projects have been successfully completed developing PrognosisBC for use in the complex stands of the southern and central interior. These include projects to:
1) calibrate the growth and mortality components for mixed species stands in different subzones (Zumrawi et al, 2002 and Zumrawi et al 2005, Temesgen et al 2000);
2) develop a natural regeneration prediction system following partial harvesting (Hassani et al 2004)
3) develop a user-friendly graphical user interface (Robinson, 2005);
4) provide hands-on training workshops for model users; and
5) develop natural regeneration prediction models for MPB-attacked stands (ongoing).
Both version 2.0 and 3.0 of the model are supported by the BC Ministry of Forests and Range and are available for download from the Ministry?s growth and yield website.
Future development of PrognosisBC will build on the work completed in the last 5 years. The following research and development components are proposed for the next three years:
? review the growth and mortality components of Version 3.0 based on the results of the validation completed in 2006;
? complete model calibration for the SBS and SBPS BEC zones;
? amalgamate Versions 2 and 3 of the model to address gaps in it?s capability to predict natural regeneration following partial harvesting;
? develop snag and coarse woody debris and decay components to generate carbon reports for live and dead biomass in the short term and to facilitate future linkages to fuel and fire models in the long term;
? investigate the possibilities of incorporating climate change effects into the model?s predictions; and
? validate the model?s performance in each of these areas.
Repeated measurements from permanent sample plots (PSPs) in IDFdk were used to validate the PrognosisBC model performance (Zumrawi et al 2006). Overall, the model performance was found to be within acceptable limits. The model accurately simulated future individual tree dbh. Future individual tree heights were also predicted within acceptable limits; however, the model was highly variable and seemed to underestimate height growth of large trees. Also, the validation revealed that the random error component for the small tree height increment models behaved in erratically and need to be examined. Under this proposal both the large tree and small tree height increment models will be refitted and new model forms will be evaluated and where appropriate implemented. ...
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim, Lee, Terry; Marshall, Peter L.; LeMay, Valerie M.. 2009. GYMP: Development of the PrognosisBC model for the complex stands in southern and central interior of BC. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2009MR009
Topic: FLNRORD Research Program
Series: Forest Investment Account Report
Keywords: Forest, Investment, Account, (FIA), British, Columbia
PrognosisBC is a growth and yield model developed to predict the impacts of partial cutting on future stand structures in multi-species and/or multi-age stands. Applications of the existing version of this model are limited by the lack of a natural regeneration component. The research and extension activities outlined in this proposal are aimed at implementing a natural regeneration model within the context of PrognosisBC . This work will be based on the regeneration imputation techniques developed at the Department of Forest Resources Management, UBC, for a number of important biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification subzone variants in south-eastern and central British Columbia. The new model will provide the tool needed to project the dynamics of complex stands under partial harvesting regimes. Abdel Azim Zumrawi...[et al.]
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim. 2003. Implementing a PrognosisBC regeneration submodel for the complex stands of south-eastern and central British Columbia. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2003MR258
The specific objectives of this project were to: (i) assess the predictions of PrognosisBC natural regeneration model against the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) data, (ii) study the effect of varying degrees of partial cutting on long-term model results, and; (iii) further develop and enhance the natural regeneration model software including any database design changes and updates. There are two separate reports in this document. The first report presents the research associated with objectives (i) and (ii) and is titled 'Implementing a PrognosisBC Regeneration Sub-model for Complex Stands of South-eastern and Central British Columbia: Use in MPB-Affected Stands and Results of Long-Term Projections in Partially Cut Stands.' The second report titled 'A Regeneration Model for PrognosisBC' provides details of the work associated with objective (iii). The natural regeneration model and data described in these reports constitute an integral part of the PrognosisBC growth and yield simulator and will be made available through the growth and yield website of the Ministry of Forests. Research results will also be made available through the PrognosisBC website at the University of British Columbia.
http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/prognosis/summary.html
Abdel-Azim Zumrawi.
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim, LeMay, Valerie M.; Marshall, Peter L.; Hassani, Badre Tameme; Robinson, Donald C.E.. 2005. Implementing a PrognosisBC regeneration submodel for the complex stands of south-eastern and central British Columbia. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2005MR377
The principal focus of this project is to collect overstory and understory tree data for MPB-attacked stands to augment limited data collected by Natural Resources Canada. This project is designed to augment an associated project, funded for the 2005-06 and 2006-07 fiscal years by Natural Resources Canada (NRC) involving most of the research team. The existing NRC dataset is very limited, and new data on regeneration and overstory variables in MPB-affected stands is needed to provide reasonable estimates of regeneration for use in yield projections following attack. The emphasis in this study is on identifying and sampling lodgepole pine-leading stands that were impacted by the MPB infestation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, examining regeneration 15 or more years following attack, and also stands that are more recently attacked. The intent is to augment data collected by Natural Resources Canada from stands that were attacked by MPB in the 1980s, by spreading the sampling over a considerably wider range of site and stand conditions. These data are being added to an MPB-affected stands database on regeneration for use with PrognosisBC. The data will also be made available for other models, in particular, SORTIE-ND. Data collection in Year 1 of this project (M075015) was conducted on stands attacked by the MPB in the early 1980's and late 1990s in the vicinity of Williams Lake. In the second year of this project, we propose to sample similar stands in the vicinity of Kamloops. This will extend the regeneration database that is being built for MPB-attacked to a series of subzone/variants for which there is little data at present. This, in turn, will allow the incorporation of natural regeneration into projections of future stand development for these stands.
Zumrawi, Abdel-Azim, Lee, Taehee; Marshall, Peter L.; LeMay, Valerie M.; Coates, K. David; Sattler, Derek; Robinson, Donald C.E.. 2008. Modeling Natural Regeneration in Mountain Pine Beetle Impacted Stands. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report
Topic: FLNRORD Research Program
Series: Forest Investment Account Report
Keywords: Forest, Investment, Account, (FIA), British, Columbia
A sampling program directed to four taxa of small mammals considered at risk in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia [Washington southern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys gapperi occidentalis), Pacific water shrew (Sorex bendirii), Trowbridge's shrew (Sorex trowbridgii) and shrew-mole (Neurotrichus gibbsii)] was carried out to determine their distribution, abundance and habitat use. Fifty-five sites in a variety of forest types were surveyed by pitfall trapping during late July-October 1992: riparian coniferous (11); non-riparian coniferous (9); riparian mixed (26); and non-riparian mixed (9) forests. A total of 999 individuals of 15 species of small mammals was captured. No C.g. occientalis was found in any of the 18 sites that we surveyed over its historical range. S. bendirii was extremely rare (only 3 individuals were caught), restricted to riparian forested habitats, and distributed in a narrow range. Habitat loss and fragmentation are likely the major causes of local extinction. S. trowbridgii occupied
Zuleta, G.A., Galindo-Leal, C.. 1994. Distribution and Abundance of Four Species of Small Mammals at Risk in a Fragmented Landscape. Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks. Wildlife Working Report. WR64
In summary, real time operational stream channel monitoring procedures have been developed that incorporate a sediment routing procedure linking erosion in the headwaters to sensitive areas downstream. A method for selecting monitoring sites was also developed. Based on tests of the procedure at Carnation Creek, the procedure was found to work exceptionally well.
Andre Zimmerman, Sidney Tsang, Stephen Bird, Marwan Hassan, Dan Hogan.
Zimmermann, Andre E., Tsang, Sidney; Bird, Steve A.; Hassan, Marwan A.; Hogan, Daniel L.. 2004. Stream operational channel monitoring in real time. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report
Topic: FLNRORD Research Program
Series: Forest Investment Account Report
Keywords: Forest, Investment, Account, (FIA), Fisheries, Carnation, Creek, (B.C.), Hydrology
This project continues the work initiated in fiscal 2003-04 and 2004-05. The development of a Recovery Plan for caribou is an obligation of the province of British Columbia as a signatory of the National Accord for the Protection of Species at Risk in Canada. This project will allow the province to meet its obligations under that accord. The project also goes toward sustainable forest management and may be used in the development of a Sustainable Forest Management Plan.
Northern Caribou Recovery Implementation Group.
Zimmerman, Kathi, Northern Caribou Recovery Implementation Group; McNay, R. Scott; Heard, Douglas C.; Sulyma, Randy; Ellis, Rick. 2006. Northern Caribou Recovery Implementation Group for north-central British Columbia: workshop #7. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2006MR009
The objectives of this field reconnaissance are to collect data related to the slope stability of the cut slopes KM 4 of Manson 16000 Road, and to make recommendations for further studies to detail investigation and mitigation measures where appropriate. The cut slopes are located above Munro Creek, a tributary of the Manson River, Blackwater Operations, Mackenzie Forest District. Three recommendations were tabled. Firstly to carry out a detailed field investigation and survey to provide enough data for slope stabilization design. Secondly to drain the surface and ground water from up-slopes and within the slopes into nearest streams. Well-designed and constructed drainage, ground and surface water being the first and essential measure to stop further movement. Lastly, other stability measures will function well only after good drainage is established.
Zhongyou, Lou. 2003. Slope stability field reconnaissance report: cut slopes KM 4 of Manson 16000 Road, Blackwater Operations, Mackenzie Forest District. Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program. Forest Investment Account Report. FIA2003MR019
Topic: FLNRORD Research Program
Series: Forest Investment Account Report
Keywords: slope stability, data collection
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